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According to VanEck CEO Jan van Eck, oil stocks are getting a raw deal. The companies are arguably the next best cash flowing companies [compared to] the semiconductors ," he told CNBC's "ETF Edge" this week. "They're trading at double-digit cash flow yields for E&Ps [exploration and production] and sectors in the oil market. His firm runs the VanEck Oil Services ETF . Strategas' Todd Sohn also characterizes oil stocks as unloved and sees potential for a turnaround.
Persons: Jan van Eck, CNBC's, Baker Hughes, van Eck, Strategas, Todd Sohn Organizations: VanEck Oil Services, Schlumberger, Halliburton
Now some on Wall Street believe Tesla no longer deserves to be among the coveted " Magnificent 7 ," and are suggesting alternatives that could replace Elon Musk's company. "The Magnificent 7 now looks more like the Magnificent 6 as Tesla falls from the crowd," billionaire investor Leon Cooperman , CEO of the Omega Family Office, said on CNBC's " Squawk Box " Tuesday. Meanwhile, there are now 29 companies that contributed more to S & P 500 earnings than Tesla, according to Strategas Securities. The research firm identified three companies with both market cap weighting and earnings contributions (for the next 12 months) larger than Tesla — Berkshire Hathaway , Broadcom and Eli Lilly . "Berkshire spent last year fliting with the top seven, but Broadcom and Lilly have steadily gained share," Strategas said in a note.
Persons: Tesla, Elon, Leon Cooperman, Berkshire, Eli Lilly, Lilly, Strategas, Warren, Eli Lilly's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Elon Musk's, Omega, Strategas Securities, Berkshire Hathaway, Broadcom, Berkshire, JPMorgan Locations: Warren Buffett's Berkshire
As megacap tech stocks continue to fuel the rally on Wall Street, investors appear to be betting even more heavily that the big run for those market leaders will continue. Between the start of December and Feb. 2, tech sector funds brought in about $5.2 billion — more than double the next closest sector — according to Strategas. In fact, cumulative flows into all other sector funds combined have been net negative over the past three months. Not all tech sector funds will include every member of the Magnificent 7. The biggest health care sector funds on the market include the Health Care Select SPDR Fund (XLV) and the Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) .
Persons: Todd Sohn, " Sohn, Sohn's, Chris Verrone, Verrone Organizations: Nvidia, Vanguard Information Technology, Apple, Microsoft, Vanguard Health Care
New York University's Aswath Damodaran said Nvidia is overpriced, even when compared with the rest of the so-called " Magnificent Seven " companies. "And today's prices, I mean, all of the stocks looked overpriced, but I think Nvidia stands out as particularly overpriced." NVDA 1D mountain Nvidia Nvidia is one of the seven stocks that have continued to rise as a group in 2024 after leading the S & P 500 in 2023. Together, the seven stocks are up about 9% for the year. Instead, Damodaran favors Apple and Tesla in the Magnificent Seven group of companies, saying they are more attractive after their recent declines.
Persons: Aswath Damodaran, Damodaran, CNBC's, it's, Tesla, Chris Verrone, Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, Nvidia Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, Apple Locations: York
Meta's strong earnings has been a major factor in pushing up overall S & P 500 earnings estimates. The S & P 500 is up 4% for the year, but the equal-weight S & P 500 is up only 0.2%. Only about half the stocks in the S & P 500 are up this year. The two main small-cap indices, the Russell 2000 and the S & P SmallCap 600 , are both down 3% for the year. "If the S & P 500 was the Mag 7, it would be trading above 10k now."
Persons: Russell, we've Organizations: Nvidia, Microsoft, New York Stock Exchange, Software, NVIDIA, Apple
Oil prices gain $1 on strong U.S. economic growth
  + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Oil prices gained steam Thursday on stronger than expected U.S. economic growth, stimulus in China and falling domestic crude stockpiles. The U.S. economy grew 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023, soundly beating the Wall Street consensus estimate of 2%. Commercial crude oil stockpiles in the U.S. declined by 9.2 million barrels during the week ended Jan. 19, according to the Energy Information Agency. The stockpile decline is due to U.S. production taking a hit from a winter storm earlier this month, according to John Evans with PVM Oil Associates. U.S. production declined by 1 million barrels per day to 12.3 million bpd last week, according to estimates from the EIA.
Persons: Brent, John Evans, Ida, Ryan Grabinski, Grabinski, Evans Organizations: West Texas Intermediate, Energy Information Agency, PVM Oil Associates, Strategas Securities, Wednesday, CNBC PRO Locations: China, U.S, North Dakota, North America, Aden, Yemen, Iran, Iraq
Certain stocks are poised to perform better under Republican or Democratic leadership this coming November, according to Strategas. On Wednesday night, former president Donald Trump clinched the victory in the New Hampshire primary over former South Carolina Gov. The win now means it's "highly likely" Trump will secure the Republication presidential nomination, according to Strategas analyst Daniel Clifton. US-China trade tensions are likely to continue regardless, but we see greater escalation under Trump," Clifton said. Other names that could outperform under Democratic leadership include renewable energy company NextEra Energy , automation provider Rockwell Automation and beverage company Constellation Brands .
Persons: there's, Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Daniel Clifton ., Clifton, Trump, Biden, Kinder Morgan, Tesla, Joe, Morgan Stanley, Erik Woodring, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Republican, Democratic, South Carolina Gov, Trump, L3Harris Technologies, JPMorgan, Democrat, Verizon Communications, GOP Congress, California's, Tesla, Biden, Apple, NextEra Energy, Rockwell Automation, Constellation Brands Locations: New Hampshire, L3Harris, Tuesday's, China, Clifton, U.S, LSEG
Semiconductor stocks have been on a tear for more than a year, led by Nvidia , which has emerged as a leading stock in the excitement around artificial intelligence. That has helped the S & P 500 enter a new bull market and made the chipmakers an increasingly influential part of the major market indexes. "The % weight of the Semiconductors within the S & P 500 is now at nearly 9%. For example, the best-performing fund in the category so far this year is the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) . The ETF tracks the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index , which has a modified market cap weight approach.
Persons: NVDA, Todd Sohn, . Sohn, Sohn Organizations: Semiconductor, Nvidia, VanEck Semiconductor, P Semiconductor
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStock market still largely led by cyclicality so don't fight the trend, says Strategas' VerroneChris Verrone, Strategas head of technical and macro research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss what happens now in the stock market after record-highs, if the character of the recent rally has changed, and much more.
Persons: cyclicality, Chris Verrone Organizations: Email
The small-cap Russell 2000 has dropped close to 4% against a fractional gain in the S & P 500 year to date. In broad terms, the S & P 500 could retreat to 4600 or so – about 4% down from here – and still be in a routine technical check-back to its latest launch point in early December. Todd Sohn of Strategas notes that the Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) saw inflows go vertical last year to $13.5 billion, 30% above its prior 12-month record. Betting on 'peacetime' Fed cuts Right or wrong, the market debate right now can never get far before turning into a Fed-policy-path discussion. Last week's CPI and PPI data added to the market's collective conviction that inflation's downside momentum is strong, opening the way for "peacetime" Fed rate cuts.
Persons: that's, Russell, Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, Tony Pasquariello, Goldman Sachs, Henry McVey, KKR's, McVey, Morgan Stanley, Todd Sohn, Strategas, they're, Jerome Powell Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Goldman, Nasdaq, Apple, CPI, PPI Locations: U.S
The Santa Claus rally is in trouble. With one day left in the trade, the S & P 500 is down 0.1% in the past six days. Fortunately, a negative Santa Claus rally period doesn't happen very often, only 12 times since 1969 — less than 25% of the time. "That is 16 out of 16 years, which includes years with recessions, like 2020," Clifton notes. The outperformance is notable: The S & P tends to be stronger by 1.3% on average.
Persons: Santa Claus, Jeff Hirsch, Tom McClellan, Hirsch, Dan Clifton, Clifton, Biden, Jason Trennert, Strategas, There's Organizations: Santa, Treasury, Bloomberg Locations: Santa, Santa Claus, U.S, Strategas, Mexico, India, Taiwan, Pakistan, Indonesia, South Africa, Tunisia
The India SENSEX Index, an index of 30 large companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange, is up 18% this year. The iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) is at a new high. You run several international ETFs focused on the internet and ecommerce, including the India Internet & Ecommerce ETF (INQQ). The internet companies are the fastest growing consumer companies. The India Internet economy may grow 500% by 2030.
Persons: Burton Malkiel, Kevin Carter, Todd Sohn, There's Organizations: Bombay Stock Exchange, Edge, Chemical Bank, Princeton University, EMQQ, India, Ecommerce, Strategas Securities, Microsoft, Apple, India's Tata Group, Bajaj Financial, China ETF, White House Locations: Europe, India, China, United States
Investors nearing retirement are looking for ways to earn stable income while still growing their assets long term. Sohn suggested that investor appetite for stable income products has grown in part because of this year's narrow market leadership. That's leading some experts to recommend actively managed strategies, which represent 23.3% of all flows into equity and income products this year, according to data from Strategas. Brendan McCarthy, Goldman Sachs Asset Management's managing director of exchange-traded funds, contends that active ETFs with an options overlay strategy can help investors achieve those stable returns. McCarthy manages Goldman Sachs' new active funds, Goldman Sachs S&P 500 Core Premium Income ETF (GPIX) and Goldman Sachs Nasdaq-100 Core Premium Income ETF (GPIQ).
Persons: Todd Sohn, CNBC's, Sohn, That's, Brendan McCarthy, Goldman, McCarthy, Goldman Sachs, GPIX, GPIQ Organizations: Goldman, Goldman Sachs Nasdaq, Nasdaq Locations: Strategas, Goldman Sachs
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStrategas’ Jason Trennert on the appeal of energy sector: It is 'institutionally underowned'Jason Trennert, Strategas Research Partners chairman and CEO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the Fed's inflation fight, 2024 outlook, and more.
Persons: Jason Trennert Organizations: Strategas Research
The S & P 500 entered Thursday up 8.5% in November, on track for its best month since July 2022. .SPX 1M mountain November is shaping up to be the best month of the year for the S & P 500. Through mid-November, when 94% of S & P 500 companies had reported results, third quarter earnings were tracking about 4.3% above the same time last year, according to FactSet. Top stocks Another important change in November is the stocks leading the way. Of the 10 biggest stocks in the S & P 500, five rose at least 10% in November, including the two largest in Apple and Microsoft .
Persons: John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer, Angelo Kourkafas, Edward Jones, It's, it's, Yung, Yu Ma, That's, Santa Claus, Chris Verrone, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Treasury, Federal, PCE, Fed, CNBC, Expedia, Carnival Corp, Generac Holdings, Paramount Global, Insulet Corp, BMO Wealth Management, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Energy, OPEC Locations: U.S, Santa
The year-end rally we've been enjoying could get another lift as companies scoop up shares of their own stock. Those gains are driven mainly by falling Treasury yields, as well as third-quarter results that have come in largely better than anticipated. But some market observers expect equities could get another boost from the number of companies exiting the "buyback blackout" window. This period spans several weeks around quarterly results when companies are restricted from repurchasing shares. As of the survey's close last Tuesday, that would mean the S & P 500 would reach 4,945, or an all-time high.
Persons: we've, Strategas, Ryan Grabinski, Jill Carey, Grabinski, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank, Investor
The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF , which offers exposure to a basket of the country's most liquid stocks, soared more than 13% on Monday and hit its highest level since September. While the South American country's markets are closed on Monday for a local holiday, U.S.-listed shares of Argentinian companies also surged in U.S. trading. The gains for the ETF came through large amounts of small trades, Todd Sohn, an ETF analyst at Strategas in New York, said. By mid-morning, the value of trading in the ETF had topped $11 million, compared with average of about $1 million a day throughout 2023. "These small country funds are ideal vehicles for small day traders who jump on events" like Sunday's presidential election in Argentina, Sohn said.
Persons: Agustin Marcarian, Argentina's Javier Milei, Todd Sohn, Sohn, Suzanne McGee, Megan Davies, Andrew Heavens Organizations: REUTERS, Argentina ETF, Management, Inc, U.S, Banco, Grupo Financiero, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, American, New York, ARGT, Grupo Financiero Galicia
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSmall and large cap growth stocks diverge, Strategas' Chris Verrone charts key levelsChris Verrone and the 'Fast Money' traders talks his value investing playbook.
Persons: Chris Verrone
REUTERS/Nicholas Roberts/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 13 (Reuters) - GMO LLC, the asset management firm co-founded by veteran investor Jeremy Grantham, will launch its first exchange-traded fund (ETF) on Wednesday. Holdings in GMO's quality stock-focused mutual funds include companies like Microsoft (MSFT.O), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Apple (AAPL.O). About 22% of all inflows into ETFs this year have been to active ETFs, which represent only 7% of total ETF assets, according to Todd Sohn, an ETF analyst at Strategas. The fund will be managed by Tom Hancock, who has been running a $7.9 billion mutual fund with a similar focus, the GMO Quality III , since 2009. The GMO launch is the second steered to market by the Goldman Sachs ETF Accelerator, which offers asset managers consulting advice on each stage of the launch process.
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Nicholas Roberts, Johnson, Todd Sohn, Tom Hancock, Goldman Sachs, Hancock, Suzanne McGee, Ira Iosebashvili, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Pace University, REUTERS, Quality, Holdings, Microsoft, Apple, CFRA Research, Goldman, Thomson Locations: Oxford, New York
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHome builders are in a secular run, says Strategas' Chris VerroneChris Verrone, Strategas head of technical and macro research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss opportunities outside the tech sector.
Persons: Strategas, Chris Verrone Chris Verrone
Investors can't get enough of money market funds these days due to their attractive yields, which are north of 5%. When money market funds work Those who need easy access to cash could benefit from the money market funds' liquidity, which is one of the asset's biggest advantages, Benz said. However, unlike bank savings accounts, money market funds are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. While money market funds may be yielding more than longer-term Treasurys or investment-grade bonds right now, that isn't necessarily always going to be the case. "Why would someone invest in a 5-year Treasury note when a money market fund is yielding higher?
Persons: Christine Benz, hasn't, Charles Schwab, Hermes, Peter Crane, Benz, Barry Glassman, Glassman, laddering, , Jesse Pound Organizations: Morningstar, Crane Data, Fidelity, Data, Vanguard, Wealth, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Benz, CNBC
The furious rise in interest rates appears to be fueling a spike in trading for long-term bond products, even those focused on high quality Treasurys. While many long-term bond funds have seen recent inflows, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is extending its ETF market leadership position. The popularity of ARKK was a classic momentum trade, while bond funds have mostly been crushed over the past year. TLT YTD mountain Long-term bond funds like TLT have fallen sharply in 2023. Klingelhofer did say he was more interested in adding mid-term duration than long-term duration products, however.
Persons: Todd Sohn, ARKK, " Sohn, Sohn, Jeff Klingelhofer, Klingelhofer, Allison Bonds, it's, Bonds Organizations: Treasury Bond ETF, Innovation, CNBC, Thornburg Investment Management, State Street Global Advisors
Mainstream investment giants such as BlackRock (BLK.N) and Fidelity, as well as crypto-focused firms like Grayscale, have filed applications for spot bitcoin ETFs. U.S. crypto firm NYDIG estimates demand for a spot bitcoin ETF at around $30 billion. Their calculation compares the sizes of the gold and bitcoin ETFs - $210 billion versus $28.8 billion, respectively - and adjusts them for their relative volatility. BlackRock declined to comment on its pending spot bitcoin ETF, other than to confirm that it is still awaiting final SEC approval. His forecast is based on how demand evolved in smaller markets where spot bitcoin ETFs already exist, such as Canada.
Persons: Dado, Dave Mazza, George Gagliardi, cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, Todd Sohn, Steven McClurg, Crypto, Matthew Sigel, Matthew Hougan, Steve Sosnick, Suzanne McGee, Ira Iosebashvili, Michelle Price Organizations: REUTERS, Roundhill Investments, Fidelity, U.S . Securities, Exchange, Coromandel Wealth Management, Strategas Securities, Boston Consulting, BlackRock, SEC, Bitwise Investments, Interactive, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, BlackRock, Lexington , Massachusetts, Canada
Chart analysts are optimistic on the price of gold as the metal tests a ceiling that has previously capped gains. Spot gold has traded around the closely-watched $2,000 level in recent days for the first time since May. And, if previous highs can be surpassed, "we do think it's got some room to run here." That's based on analysis of previous movement in the gold chart to estimate how high the metal could go in the near term. Cappelleri, meanwhile, is first watching $2,180 after previous highs, based on a technical analysis of measured moves.
Persons: Thomas DiFazio, it's, Katie Stockton, Frank Cappelleri, Cappelleri, DiFazio, Mark Newton, Newton, It's Organizations: Bank of Japan Locations: Israel
Investors lured by high yields could be making a mistake if they are buying bonds these days, according to Strategas. Meanwhile, investment grade bonds are yielding even more, with the ICE BofA U.S. Corporate Index 's effective yield sitting at 6.3%. Bond yields move inversely to prices, so when prices fall, yields move higher, and vice versa. Strategas is of the mindset that until the market suggests otherwise, the trend in yields is up. In fact, not many investors made real money playing against the trend in the four decades when yields were falling, Verrone pointed out.
Persons: Chris Verrone, Verrone, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, ICE Locations: Strategas
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